Abstract
El análisis de la información contable de las empresas resulta relevante para la detección de situaciones de vulnerabilidad financiera. Si bien esta información suele estar disponible para aquellas empresas que cotizan en diferentes mercados bursátiles, generalmente no se cuenta con una caracterización explícita referida a su situación financiera (i.e. en crisis o sanas). En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la incidencia de determinadas razones contables sobre la situación financiera de empresas de distintos mercados latinoamericanos: Chile, Perú y Argentina, en base a los estados contables correspondientes al período 2001-2011. A fin de detectar que las razones contables influyen primordialmente en las empresas en crisis, se aplicaron métodos recursivos: Árboles de Clasificación. De esta manera, se propicia contar con herramientas que permitan predecir el estado financiero de las empresas. En todos los mercados la rentabilidad resultó determinante con una fuerte incidencia en la clasificación de las empresas. Posteriormente, a efectos de analizar el impacto de otras razones, se la excluyó siendo las variables de mayor impacto disímiles entre los países. En el caso de Argentina, el tamaño de la empresa, el capital de trabajo y la rotación del activo resultaron las variables predictoras más importantes; en el caso de Chile fue el flujo de fondos operativos; y en el de Perú, la liquidez seguida por la rotación del activo.
Abstract
Analysis of accounting information of companies is relevant to the detection of situations of financial vulnerability. While this information is usually available for companies listed on various stock markets, generally not have an explicit characterization referred to its financial position (i.e. in crisis or healthy). In this context, the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of same financial ratios on the financial situation of companies from different Latin American markets: Chile, Peru and Argentina, based on the financial statements in the period 2000 - 2011. In order to detect which financial ratios have primordial influence in companies in crisis, recursive methods were applied in this paper: Classification Trees. In this way, it is encouraged to have tools to predict the financial condition of the companies. In all markets, profitability was decisive with a strong impact on the classification of companies. Subsequently, in order to analyze the impact of other ratios, this variable was excluded, being more disparate the impact of other variables among countries. In the case of Argentina, the size of the company, working capital and asset turnover were the most important predictors; in the case of Chile was the operating cash flow; and that of Peru, liquidity followed by asset turnover.
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