Abstract
Brazilian agribusiness has stood out in the international trade of commodities, particularly the soy complex, which, since the 2000s, has assumed the leading role in the national export agenda. Therefore, this article aims to analyze the determinants of international trade inherent to the Brazilian soy complex covering the period from 2000 to 2019. For this purpose, the Constant Market Share (CMS) model was used, considering four subperiods: 2000-2019. 2004, 2005-2011, 2012-2015 and 2016-2019. The data used to carry out this study were collected from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). As a result, obtained by the CMS, it is highlighted that the growth effect of world trade and the competitiveness effect was responsible for the increase in exports of soy in grain since the growth of exports of soy oil was explained by the development of world exports, in the first and last subperiod, by the competitiveness effect, in the second subperiod, and by the distribution of markets in the third subperiod. The growth of national soybean meal exports was evident for most subperiods due to the development of world exports, except in the second subperiod in which the competitiveness effect was predominant. Furthermore, it was found that the growth of world exports was responsible for promoting the soy complex in aggregate form in all subperiods.
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